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NEW:  Snapshot of the market in Piney-Z (Labor Day Weekend '09)

Joe Manausa’s Tallahassee Real Estate Blog (IMHO, a rather pessimistic view with an unstated philosophy of encouraging Sellers to drop prices so things will sell faster—but I don’t offer that critique as supportable, objective fact) finally said we had a recent trend in Tallahassee which could indicate the market has bottomed out. So, if Joe’s saying we’re close to bottom a few months ahead of his prediction we’d be there in November, we’re probably there.

Also, if you look at sales for the last year and supply available on the market to calculate a “months of inventory,” for houses in Piney-Z we have had 37 sales and 28 are on the market. That is an average of just over 3 houses selling per month, which would mean if nothing else came on the market, we'd be "sold out" in 9 months. Less than 6 months is a “Sellers’ Market,” and above 9 is a “Buyers’ Market.”


Under 1700 SqFt, we have 7 active and 10 sold, which is a 6 month inventory. Leon County as a whole has about a 20 month inventory.

 

Interest rates are great. And those first time buyers need to get on the stick before they loose their $8K incentive. Almost everybody I talk to has seen some increase in activity for a couple of months.

And on the foreclosure issue, percentage wise Piney-Z has been lower than most other areas in Leon County (again, from the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog). But the last several homeowners here who had a lis pendens filed on them have not put their houses on the market. One with whom I’ve spoken has gotten legal advice that has basically told him he can file continuances and motions and stay in the house for years without making a payment. I think that’s the next trend in foreclosures we’re going to see. So regardless of the forecasts which predict millions of new foreclosures in the future, I don’t look to see many more pulling the market down. Currently there are none active in Piney-Z and 2 under contingent contracts (both of which have been trying to close for months).

And under the category “both good and bad,” the last two houses that closed in Piney-Z did not appraise for contract price. Good because Buyers are willing to pay more; bad because appraisers haven’t figured that out yet. But they usually catch on quickly.
 
 
Bottom line: now is the time to buy before rates go up (see my blog below to see how expensive it can be if prices drop 5% but interest rates go up 1/4 of 1%) and before Sellers realize the market is shifting toward their favor.